South Coast Population Forecast, July 3

Portland State University Center for Population Research has released a long-term county population and demographic forecast and its implications for the labor force on the South Oregon Coast. According to a report in the South Coast Labor Trends for the Oregon Employment Dept., Coos and Curry County populations are expected to increase over the forecast period. Coos County will more than likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years. Coos County’s total population will increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Under the most-likely population growth scenario in Curry County, population is expected to increase through 2055 and decline slightly over the remainder of the forecast period. The population growth rate is forecast to peak in 2025 and then decline throughout the forecast period. Curry County’s total population is forecast to grow by almost 6,000 persons (21%) from 2015 to 2065, which translates into a total county-wide population of 27,286 in 2065. The population is forecast to grow at the highest rate – approximately 1.1 percent per year – in the near-term (2015-2025). This anticipated population growth in the near-term is based on two core assumptions: 1) the South Coast’s economy will continue to strengthen in the next five years, and 2) an increasing number of baby boomers will retire to the county. The single largest component of growth in this initial period is net in-migration. More than 4,700 net in-migrants in Curry County and nearly 3,700 in Coos County are forecast for the 2015 to 2025 period. The tapering of growth rates over time in the South Coast is largely driven by an aging population – a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in the South Coast will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration.