OHA releases updated modeling report, Oct. 5

OHA released its latest modeling report. The model offers three scenarios, assuming 4,500 tests per day for each.  The optimistic scenario assumes a 5-percentage-point increase on Sept. 5, but attributes increases in diagnosed cases after Sept. 15 to a decline in testing. Under this scenario by Oct. 22, new infections would increase from 680 to 800, resulting in about 270 daily cases. Severe cases – those requiring hospitalization – would increase to 24, and a reproduction rate would be 1.04, meaning that someone with the virus is passing it to more than one person. The pessimistic scenario assumes a 10-percentage-point increase in transmission after Sept. 5 and attributes some of higher cases to be the result of increased transmission rather than a lack of testing. Under this scenario, by Oct. 22, there would be approximately 900 new infections and about 300 new daily cases, with eight more severe cases and a reproduction rate of 1.17. The moderate scenario assumes a 7-percentage-point increase from Sept. 5, attributing fewer of the increased diagnosed cases to increased transmission. Under this scenario, by Oct. 22, new daily cases would increase by 120, with one additional severe case and a reproduction rate of 1.12. Based on COVID-19 data through Sept. 24 the model is consistent with increases in transmission throughout May, followed by decreases in transmission through late July and declining case17s in August. As has been shown since the beginning of the pandemic in Oregon, these trends remain very sensitive to small changes in transmission levels. Model results should be interpreted with caution, given these recent reductions in testing and uncertainty behind various COVID-19 model assumptions.