New COVID-19 model released, Jan. 11

Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 model, which estimated that transmission of COVID-19 decreased dramatically between late November and mid-December before surging sharply upward. According to the model, the statewide transmission in late November dropped to an effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – of 0.8 before surging to 1.29 as of Dec. 23. At the current level of transmission, the projected average of new daily cases will be 1,780 between Jan. 13 and Jan. 26, with 85 additional daily hospitalizations. If transmission mirrors the levels from the late November to mid-December model, daily cases will number about 1,400 and hospitalizations would hover at about 55 per day.  The model shows that more Oregonians – about 53% – would accept the COVID-19 vaccine and that three out of four Oregonians are regularly wearing masks or face coverings. The projections on spread of the virus emphasize the importance of continuing to practice preventive measures that can slow the spread of the disease. Maintain physical distance. Wear a face covering or mask. Avoid gatherings with non-household members. Practice good hand hygiene.