New COVID-19 model released, March 15

Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which estimated that transmission of the virus increased in December but declined in recent weeks. The model also provided an update on the effective reproduction rate, which calculates the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates. The effective reproduction rate for early February through Feb. 24 was 0.83. At that level of transmission, the projected average of new daily cases would be 170 between March 17 and March 30, and daily hospitalizations would increase by six. If, because of the presence of new variants or a lack of adherence to protective measures, transmission increases by 30%, the estimated reproduction rate would be 1.1. At that rate, estimated daily cases would climb to 265, and daily hospitalizations would increase by 10. The report also indicates that public support for increased restrictions is waning and that Oregonians are resuming activities that were suspended earlier in the pandemic. As access to vaccine gradually expands throughout the state, the projections on spread of the virus emphasize the importance of continuing to practice preventive measures that can slow the spread of the disease. It is important that all Oregonians continue to: Maintain physical distance. Wear a face covering or mask. Avoid gatherings with non-household members. Practice good hand hygiene.