New COVID-19 Model Released, April 5

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which showed higher transmission of the virus through mid-March. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at 1.12 through March 17. At that level of transmission, daily cases for the two-week period between April 7 and April 20 would rise to 130 per 100,000 people, leading to an estimated average of 390 daily cases and 17 new daily hospitalizations. If transmission increases by 20% over the same period, new cases would reach 195 per 100,000, resulting in an estimated average of 585 daily cases, with 27 more daily hospitalizations. If transmission drops by 20%, new cases would fall to 86 per 100,000 and daily cases will drop to an average of 260 daily cases, with a corresponding decline in daily hospitalizations to 11. As access to vaccine gradually expands throughout the state, the projections on spread of the virus emphasize the importance of continuing to practice preventive measures that can slow the spread of the disease. Maintain physical distance. Wear a face covering or mask. Avoid gatherings with non-household members. Practice good hand hygiene.