New COVID-19 model released, April 26

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which showed significantly higher transmission of the virus through early April and projects an increase in cases and hospitalizations. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at 1.24 through April 7. At that level of transmission, daily cases would rise to 960, with 38 new daily hospitalizations between April 28 and May 11. If transmission increases by 20%, new daily cases would rise to 1,610, with 66 additional hospitalizations per day. As access to vaccine gradually expands throughout the state, the projections on spread of the virus emphasize the importance of continuing to practice preventive measures that can slow the spread of the disease. Maintain physical distance. Wear a face covering or mask. Avoid gatherings with non-household members. Practice good hand hygiene.