Newest COVID-19 modeling report shows decline in transmission, June 14

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which showed lower transmission of the virus through late May and projects fewer hospitalizations and daily cases through June 29. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at 0.66 through May 26. At that same level of transmission, daily cases would decline to 100 daily cases and new hospitalizations would decrease to five per day over the next three weeks. If transmission increases by 20%, new cases would decline more gradually, to 135 new daily cases, with seven new hospitalizations daily. The modeling shows that estimated immunity from vaccination is present in four times more people than have naturally acquired immunity. Natural immunity is immunity stemming from prior infection. A person who has had COVID-19 and recovered may not have the same level of immunity as someone who has not been infected and has been fully vaccinated, and it is unknown how long the natural immunity will last. People who have recovered from the disease have a robust response to the vaccine. OHA recommends that people get the vaccine to increase their protection against COVID-19. More than 2.3 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of the safe and highly effective vaccine, and 2 million have completed a vaccine series.