Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects continued increase in daily cases and hospitalizations, Aug. 30

Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated at 1.21 on Aug. 11, projecting a slight decline in the estimated growth of new cases from last week’s modeling scenario.
At that level of transmission, the report estimates 1,000 cases per 100,000 people, or 3,000 daily cases and 165 hospitalizations by Sept. 7. The modeling report also predicted a scenario based on a projected increase in facemask use among Oregonians between Aug. 11 and Aug. 31. If the trend of Oregonians complying with the protective measure were to increase from 49% to 80%, the growth of new daily cases would be somewhat lower – an estimated 850 per 100,000 people. That translates to 2,550 new cases and 135 hospitalizations by Sept. 7. Vaccinations remain the most effective tool for slowing the spread of COVID-19. To date more than 2.6 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of the safe and highly effective vaccine and nearly 2.4 million people have completed a vaccine series.