Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects slight slowing in daily cases and hospitalizations, Sept. 6

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at 1.17 on Aug. 18, projecting a slight decline in the estimated growth of new cases from last week’s modeling scenario. At that level of transmission, the report estimates 970 cases per 100,000 people, or 2,900 daily cases and 160 hospitalizations for the two-week period ending between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21. The modeling report also predicted a scenario based on a projected increase in facemask use among Oregonians between Aug. 18 and Aug. 31. If the trend of Oregonians complying with the protective measure were to increase from 65% to 80% among the susceptible population, the growth of new daily cases would be somewhat slower — at an estimated 870 per 100,000 people. That translates to 2,600 new cases and 140 hospitalizations by Sept. 21. Vaccinations remain the most effective tool for slowing the spread of COVID-19. Oregonians are also encouraged to wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds and to reconsider their activities in the coming weeks as COVID-19 cases hover at or near the highest levels seen during the pandemic in Oregon.