Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects decrease in daily cases and hospitalizations, Sept. 27

Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast which shows a slowing in the decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through mid-October. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated at .91 on Sept. 8, which is higher than last week’s projection. But the model still projects a decline in the estimated growth of new cases and hospitalizations over last week’s modeling scenario. At that level of transmission, the report estimates 495 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 1,480 daily cases and 81 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Sept. 29 and Oct. 12. The modeling report also estimated the potential impact of a 20% increase in transmission. Under that scenario, there would be an increase in newly diagnosed cases and hospitalizations, with an estimated average of 685 per 100,000 people, projecting an estimated average of 2,050 new cases and 118 hospitalizations over the same period. The report also indicates that hospitals across the state are seeing declines in COVID-19 hospitalizations. However, COVID-19 bed occupancy levels remain higher than during previous surges. The report also noted a slow increase in high-risk behaviors and protocol fatigue. Vaccinations remain the most effective tool for slowing the spread of COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds. To date more than 2.71 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of the safe and highly effective vaccine and 2.48 million people have completed a vaccine series.