Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects decrease in daily cases and hospitalizations, Oct. 11

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing a continued decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through mid-October. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at .91 on Sept. 22, which is higher than last week’s projection.
At that level of transmission, the report estimates 425 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 1,275 daily cases and 78 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Oct. 13 and Oct. 26. The report also estimated the potential impact from the projected spread of the disease from Sept. 16 through 22, which closely tracks the reported data during that week. At that rate of transmission, new daily cases and hospitalizations are expected to decline more steeply, with an estimated average of 350 per 100,000 people, projecting an average of 1,050 new cases and 62 hospitalizations through Oct. 26. The report also indicated that hospitals across the state are seeing declines in COVID-19 hospitalizations and COVID-19 intensive care admissions. The report also noted no increase in high-risk behaviors. Vaccinations remain the most effective shield against COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds.