Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects decrease in daily cases and hospitalizations
Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing a continued decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through early November. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated at .90 on Oct. 6, which is slightly lower than last week’s projection. At that level of transmission, the report estimates 255 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 770 daily cases and 45 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Oct. 27 and Nov. 9. The report also estimated the potential impact from the projected spread of the disease from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, which had a reproductive rate that averaged .82. At that rate of transmission, new daily cases and hospitalizations are expected to decline more steeply, with an estimated average of 185 per100,000 people, projecting an average of 555 new cases and 31 hospitalizations over the same period. The report also identified a “significant contrast” in adherence to the recommended public health protocols between unvaccinated and vaccinated persons. Mask wearing among unvaccinated people is about half the rate of vaccinated people. Unvaccinated people are also more likely to attend large events outdoors. Vaccinations and booster doses remain the most effective shield against COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds. To date more than 2.79 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of the safe and highly effective vaccine and 2.58 million people have completed a vaccine series.
Oregon reports 1,517 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 10 new deaths
PORTLAND, Ore. — There are 10 new COVID-19 related deaths in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 4,284, Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reported at 12:01 a.m. Friday. OHA reported 1,517 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 as of 12:01 a.m. Friday, bringing the state total to 357,526.
Booster doses for Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccine recommended by CDC
Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) endorsed the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) recommendation for booster shots of Moderna’s and Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccines. CDC recommended that anyone 65 and older, and those between 18 and 64 who received the Moderna vaccine, should receive a booster dose of the Moderna vaccine at least six months after their second dose. Those groups include people 18 and older in long-term care settings, who have underlying medical conditions, and who work or live in high-risk settings. The CDC also recommended that anyone 18 and older who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should receive a booster dose at least two months after their first dose. The Western States Scientific Safety Review Workgroup, including Oregon, Washington, California and Nevada, met last night to discuss recommendations for COVID-19 booster doses for fully vaccinated people. Today, the workgroup announced its support for the CDC recommendations. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown today praised the decision. “Whether you received the Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson vaccine, everyone eligible who wants a booster will be able to get one and the extra layer of protection a booster dose provides,” she said. Some people may have a preference for the vaccine type they originally received and others may prefer to get a different booster. The workgroup supported CDC’s decision that individuals eligible for a booster may receive either the same or a different COVID-19 vaccine as a booster dose, depending on advice from a health care provider, individual preference, availability or convenience. Additional information on vaccine boosters and third doses can be found on this web page.
COVID-19 Hospitalizations
The number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 across Oregon is 537, which is 30 fewer than Thursday. There are 128 COVID-19 patients in intensive care unit (ICU) beds, which is five fewer than Thursday. There are 45 available adult ICU beds out of 703 total (6% availability) and 280 available adult non-ICU beds out of 4,097 (7% availability). The total number of patients in hospital beds may fluctuate between report times. The numbers do not reflect admissions per day, nor the length of hospital stay. Staffing limitations are not captured in this data and may further limit bed capacity. Note: Please do not visit an emergency department for COVID-19 testing, unless you require emergency care for your symptoms. Emergency departments in Oregon are under significant strain responding to the current surge in COVID-19. If you have a medical condition that doesn’t require emergency care, contact your provider. An urgent care center may also help you get the care you need and will save emergency departments from added strain.
Vaccinations in Oregon
Friday, OHA reported that 13,526 new doses of COVID-19 vaccinations were added to the state immunization registry on Oct. 21. Of that total, 842 were initial doses; 922 were second doses and 3,477 were third doses and booster doses. The remaining 8,203 were administered on previous days but were entered into the vaccine registry on Oct. 21. The seven-day running average is now 9,133 doses per day. Oregon has now administered 3,219,167 doses of Pfizer Comirnaty, 1,937,297 doses of Moderna and 224,324 doses of Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines. As of today, 2,796,331 people have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 2,583,129 people have completed a COVID-19 vaccine series. These data are preliminary and subject to change. Updated vaccination data are provided on Oregon’s COVID-19 data dashboards and have been updated Friday.
Cases and COVID-19 Deaths
The new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases reported Friday are in the following counties: Baker (10), Benton (28), Clackamas (119), Clatsop (12), Columbia (29), Coos (25), Crook (44), Curry (6), Deschutes (126), Douglas (53), Gilliam (1), Harney (2), Hood River (8), Jackson (80), Jefferson (36), Josephine (36), Klamath (54), Lake (15), Lane (120), Lincoln (19), Linn (134), Malheur (20), Marion (118), Morrow (6), Multnomah (153), Polk (37), Sherman (2), Tillamook (5), Umatilla (42), Union (11), Wasco (14), Washington (110), Wheeler (1), and Yamhill (41).