Friday, Oregon Health Authority released its latest modeling, which shows a projected increase in COVID-19 cases and that more Oregonians are staying home and physically distancing. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated to be 1.25, as of Nov. 19, one day after the statewide freeze was enacted. The current level of transmission could generate “exponential” growth, resulting in approximately 2,000 new daily cases and 75 additional daily hospitalizations by Dec. 24. If the spread of COVID-19 reached the levels from mid-October, new daily cases could reach 2,700 and patients needing hospitalization would increase to 110 per day. The model does consider the time period during Thanksgiving. The model also shows that Oregonians are practicing physical distancing at the highest levels since the beginning of the summer and that a majority of Oregonians are wearing face coverings when outside, or indoors where six feet of distance cannot be maintained. The projections on spread of the virus emphasize the importance of continuing to practice preventive measures to slow the spread of the disease: Minimize close contact with others. Keep gatherings small. Wear a face covering. Wash hands frequently.
