COVID 19 modeling data shows improvement, Aug. 24

OHA released its latest modeling update Friday. As with previous reports, it modeled three future scenarios with different assumptions about transmission levels. The models start Aug. 14 and project over the next month. The first scenario showed that if transmission continues at its current rate, the estimated number of approximately 900 new daily infections would remain steady over the next 4 weeks. The number of new severe cases would continue at approximately 19 per day, by Sept. 10. The Re is – transmission rate – is projected to remain at 1. In a scenario where transmission decreases by 10 percentage points and continues at that level over the next month, the estimated daily number of new infections and newly diagnosed cases would decrease. That model shows there would be 300 new infections daily and 11 new severe cases per day. That transmission rate is .75. In a scenario where transmission increases by 10 percentage points and continues at that level over the next month, the estimated daily number of new infections and newly diagnosed cases would increase. That model projects 2,200 new daily infections and 29 new severe cases per day by Sept. 10. That transmission rate is 1.25.