Friday, Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which projects fewer hospitalizations and daily cases through July 20. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at 0.74 through June 16. If that level of transmission continues over the next three weeks, daily cases would decline to 40 cases per 100,000 people (approximately 115 cases per day) and new hospitalizations would drop to seven per day. If transmission increases by 20%, new cases would decline to 55 cases per 100,000 people (an average of 165 cases per day) and new hospitalizations would drop to 12 per day. The modeling shows that estimated immunity from vaccination is present in four times as many people as those who have naturally acquired immunity. Natural immunity is immunity stemming from prior infection. A person who has had COVID-19 and recovered may not have the same level of immunity as someone who has not been infected and has been fully vaccinated, and it is unknown how long the natural immunity will last. People who have recovered from the disease have a robust response to the vaccine. OHA recommends that people get the vaccine to increase their protection against COVID-19. More than 2.4 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of a safe and highly effective vaccine and more than 2.1 million have completed a vaccine series.
