Long-Term Job Outlook for Douglas, Coos, and Curry Counties Is Modest, July 11

Oregon Employment Dept. release – Southwestern Oregon’s Douglas, Coos, and Curry counties join Oregon’s north coast and far eastern counties with modest industry and occupational growth projections for, 2017-2027. The anticipated 7 percent job growth trails the state’s 10-year projected growth rate of 12 percent. Only South Central Oregon (Klamath and Lake counties) has a slower projected job growth rate (6%) for the 10-year period. These modest rates for the state’s border counties are in stark contrast to the state’s central high-growth area surrounding Bend, which boasts a robust 15 percent projected growth rate. Behind much of this projected employment growth is the dynamic nature of each area’s demographic make-up. Southwestern Oregon’s population is expected to grow 2.3 percent between 2018 and 2025, and 1.9 percent between 2025 and 2030. In contrast, Central Oregon’s Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties’ population is expected to grow 15.8 percent between 2018 and 2025, and 9.6 percent from 2025 to 2030 (Portland State University, Population Research Center). Population growth drives not only the demand for goods and services, it also supplies the labor needed to meet these needs. Overall employment levels change for a variety of reasons; growth results from business development and expansion. Statewide, for every new job added by growing and expanding businesses, Oregon employers will have another nine job openings requiring newly trained workers to replace those who leave the labor force or make a major occupational change. In Southwestern Oregon, every new job added by business development and expansion will be matched by approximately 18 replacement openings. Private payrolls in Douglas, Coos, and Curry counties are expected to grow by 4,340 jobs (7%). Government employment will increase by 270 (2%), and self-employment will grow by 400 (10%). Altogether, the region’s employment is expected to grow from 72,550 to 77,290.