Today the OHA released its latest modeling which shows a projected increase in COVID-19 cases and that more Oregonians are staying home and physically distant. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated to be 1.22 as of Nov. 28. The current level of transmission could result in in approximately 2,200 new daily cases and 110 additional daily hospitalizations by Jan 1. If people are not diligent about mask wearing and physical distancing, resulting in a rise in transmission like what Oregon experienced in early November, new daily cases could rise to 2,550. COVID-19 patients needing hospital care in the next two weeks would similarly rise, to 125 per day. Conversely, if people remain diligent against the virus, transmission could mirror the levels from mid-October, with daily cases at about 1,200. Under that scenario hospitalizations would drop substantially to about 55 per day. The model shows that Oregonians are travelling less frequently and that three out of four are regularly wearing masks or face coverings.
