Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing a continued decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through mid-October. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at .81 on Sept. 15, which is lower than last week’s projection.
At that level of transmission, the report estimates 320 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 955 daily cases and 56 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Oct. 6 and Oct. 19. The modeling report also estimated the potential impact of a 20% increase in transmission. Under that scenario, the pace of declining newly diagnosed cases and hospitalizations would slow considerably, with an estimated average of 505 per 100,000 people, projecting an estimated average of 1,515 new cases and 94 hospitalizations over the same period. The report also indicated that hospitals across the state are seeing declines in COVID-19 hospitalizations. However, COVID-19 bed occupancy levels remain higher than during previous surges. The report also noted a slow increase in high-risk behaviors and protocol fatigue. Vaccinations remain the most effective shield against COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds. This week’s model shows that mask-wearing recommendations and requirements have correlated with declines in the number of new cases reported each day and in hospitalizations.
