Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects decrease in daily cases and hospitalizations, Sept. 20

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing a projected decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through late September. According to the report, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at .79 on Sept. 1, projecting a decline in the estimated growth of new cases and hospitalizations over last week’s modeling scenario. At that level of transmission, the report estimates 280 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 830 daily cases and 41 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Sept. 22 and Oct. 5. The modeling report labeled that projection “optimistic” because the projection was based on the lowest point of transmission. The report proposed an alternative scenario factoring in assumptions around the impacts of reopening schools and many public events scheduled during the next month. In that scenario, new cases are estimated at 350 per 100,000 people or an average of 1,060 daily cases and 51 hospitalizations over the same period. Vaccinations remain the most effective tool for slowing the spread of COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds.