Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects higher increases in daily cases and hospitalizations, Aug. 23

Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which projects the possibility of continued higher COVID-19 associated hospitalizations and daily cases through Sept. 7. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated at 1.58 through July 14, more than double the 0.74 reported through mid-June. At that same level of transmission, over the next two weeks, daily cases would increase “exponentially” according to the report. The report projects a possible increase to 1,750 cases per 100,000 people, or an estimated 5,250 cases and 300 new hospitalizations per day between Aug. 25 and Sept. 7. According to the report, immunity from vaccinations provides three times higher level of protection than natural immunity. These projected increases can be minimized if people adopt the protective measures of wearing masks in public indoor spaces and get vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the report. To date more than 2.5 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of the safe and highly effective vaccine and more than 2.3 million have completed a vaccine series.