Newest COVID-19 modeling report shows sharply higher increases in daily cases and hospitalizations, Aug. 2

Friday, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast, which projects sharply higher COVID-19 associated hospitalizations and daily cases through Aug. 17. According to the model, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated at 1.58 through July 14, more than double the 0.74 reported through mid-June. At that same level of transmission, over the next two weeks, daily cases would continue to rapidly increase to 390 cases per 100,000 people, or an estimated 1,170 daily cases and 95 new hospitalizations per day. According to the report, “Vaccine immunity is helping prevent further spread of COVID-19.” By removing people with immunity from the model calculations, the rate of average rate of infection projects to 3.18 over the same time period. Also, according to the report, even if the Delta variant grew to comprise 95% of new cases, the adoption of protective measures such as wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings, would curb the projected increase in hospitalizations and daily cases. “Today’s modeling report, although sobering, confirms the importance of protecting ourselves and others by getting vaccinated against COVID-19,” Sidelinger said.
“By vaccinating more people, we can more quickly drive down hospitalizations and new cases,” he said.