OHA Releases Modeling Update, Oct. 19

Friday, Oct. 16, OHA released its latest update to the modeling projections which show that COVID-19 has continued to spread in Oregon over the past several weeks and has the potential to continue to keep increasing in its spread. The model examined three scenarios: The first scenario is where transmission continues at its current level for the next several weeks, new infections and cases will increase substantially. The model suggests new infections would increase to 2,200 from 1,300 and daily reported cases will increase to 570. Hospitalizations from COVID-19 would increase to 40 a day. The reproductive rate would remain at 1.15. The next scenario assumes a 5-percentage point increase in transmission. Daily infections would increase to 3,400 and 740 daily reported cases. Hospitalizations would increase to 48 per day. The reproductive rate would be 1.30. The most optimistic scenario assumes a drop in transmission by 10 percentage points. That would result in 1,400 daily infections amounting to about 290 daily reported cases. Hospitalizations would drop to 20 per day. The reproduction rate would drop to 0.88.