OHA releases new COVID-19 Forecast, Feb. 22

OHA released the latest COVID-19 model that shows a slight increase in transmission. The new report estimates that, as of Feb. 3, the statewide reproductive rate was 0.88. According to the newest forecast, if we continue along our present course of wearing masks, keeping physical distance and restricting our gatherings, daily cases will decline to an average of 320, with 10 fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations and 107 per 140,000 people between Feb. 25 and March 9. A 30% increase in transmission projects to roughly 510 daily cases and 17 new hospitalizations per day, as well as 170 cases per 100,000 people by mid-March. The new modeling warns that more Oregonians may be open to resuming activities that pose a higher risk of spread, especially as risk levels change for Oregon counties. That and the potential of a COVID-19 variant that becomes dominant could contribute to greater spread. The report indicates that 78% of Oregonians regularly wear face coverings and that most Oregonians believe the existing vaccines are safe and effective.