OHA releases newest COVID-19 modeling update, Nov. 2

Friday, Oct. 30, OHA released its latest modeling update showing that COVID-19 is continuing to spread but if transmission continues at its current rate, daily cases would increase only slightly. The model’s data does not take into account the most recent case counts, but is based on data through Oct. 22. The model examined three scenarios:
The first scenario assumes that if transmission continues at its current level into late November, new daily cases would increase from around 340 to 380 and new daily hospitalizations would number about 22. The more pessimistic scenario assumes a 5-percentage point increase in transmission, which if happens, would drive daily cases upward to about 520, with a steep increase in people who are hospitalized daily due to the virus. This would indicate vastly accelerated spread. The final and most optimistic scenario model assumes a drop in transmission to mid-August levels. That would result in 230 reported cases and a steep drop in daily hospitalizations due to COVID. This would signal considerably slower community spread. All Oregonians can play a role in fending off the spread of COVID-19 by: Keeping physical distance; Avoid large gatherings; Wear a face covering; Frequent hand washing.