Rising Unemployment Insurance Claims Portent to Economy-Wide Job Losses, April 16

Oregon Employment Dept. report – The South Coast accounted for about 2 percent of the roughly 117,100 initial unemployment claims filed in the three-week period ending April 4, 2020. In other words, we have industry detail regarding almost 2,290 initial claims filed in the South Coast, but these are just a portion of ALL claims filed during that time. In Coos County during the three week period ending on April 4, 2020, there were 1,806 claims processed. Contrast that to the prior three-week period ending March 14, when 190 initial unemployment insurance claims were processed. Curry County saw a similar spike, with claims over the same time periods rising from 68 to 482. Initial claims filed from the most recent three-week period at the South Coast were concentrated, as you would expect, in the accommodation and food services industry, with more nearly 450 claims filed. The second largest number of initial claims processed was in the health care and social assistance industry, with almost 180 claims processed in the most recent three-week period. In past swings in the business cycle, the health care and social assistance industry has been touted for being recession resistant. During the Great Recession, the longer-term growth trend in that industry just slowed slightly before continuing to expand. But in this sudden economic contraction, we have seen even that industry impacted by reduced activity, as non-urgent medical and dental procedures as well as other elective medical care have been postponed. Retail trade, with many stores and retail complexes curtailing operations, saw nearly 90 claims processed. A couple industries you might presume wouldn’t be impacted so quickly have already seen an uptick in claims – construction (+82) and manufacturing (+79).